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一代老人將要改變全球經(jīng)濟。他們將不會以相同的方式來這樣做。
在20世紀這個星球的人口將會翻兩倍。在目前的世紀中，他將不會雙倍或者一倍，因為生產(chǎn)率在世界的許多地方已經(jīng)嚴重的退化。但是超過65歲的人口的數(shù)目將會在在過去的25年中翻倍。這種人口結構的轉變并沒有和之前來的擴張一樣是暫時的。但是它已經(jīng)能夠足夠的重新形成這個世界的經(jīng)濟。
根據(jù)聯(lián)合國的人口規(guī)劃，人口的標準資源預估，將會有大約600萬的超過65歲的人或者更老的人在今天活著。這個本身是非常非凡的，作者Fred Pearce 宣稱可能有一半的超過65歲的人類在今天活著。但是作為全部人口的一部分，大約8%，和過去很多年一樣，沒有什么不同。
但是，到了2035年，超過11億的人口---13%的人口---將會超過65歲。這是降低生產(chǎn)率的自然推論，這種推論減緩全部的人口增長。它意味著將有更少比例的年輕人圍繞。老年人的撫養(yǎng)比率---老人的比率和那些工作年齡的比率將會增長的更快。在2010年每一百個人在25到64歲之間，就會有16個人超過65歲。幾乎在1980年它擁有相同的比率。到了2035年聯(lián)合國估計這個數(shù)字會增長到26.
A generation of old people is about to change the global economy. They will not all do so in the same way.
In the 20th century the planet’s population doubled twice. It will not double even once in the current century, because birth rates in much of the world have declined steeply. But the number of people over 65 is set to double within just 25 years. This shift in the structure of the population is not as momentous as the expansion that came before. But it is more than enough to reshape the world economy.
According to the UN’s population projections, the standard source for demographic estimates, there are around 600m people aged 65 or older alive today. That is in itself remarkable; the author Fred Pearce claims it is possible that half of all the humans who have ever been over 65 are alive today. But as a share of the total population, at 8%, it is not that different to what it was a few decades ago.By 2035, however, more than 1.1 billion people—13% of the population—will be above the age of 65. This is a natural corollary of the dropping birth rates that are slowing overall population growth; they mean there are proportionally fewer young people around. The “old-age dependency ratio”—the ratio of old people to those of working age—will grow even faster. In 2010 the world had 16 people aged 65 and over for every 100 adults between the ages of 25 and 64, almost the same ratio it had in 1980. By 2035 the UN expects that number to have risen to 26.
