經(jīng)合組織(OECD)昨日表示，對蘇格蘭獨(dú)立公投以及中東和烏克蘭沖突的擔(dān)憂損害了世界經(jīng)濟(jì)前景。
經(jīng)合組織在一份報(bào)告中表示，全球幾乎所有大型經(jīng)濟(jì)體在2014年和2015年的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景都有所惡化，部分原因是今年初的一次性情況打擊增長，還有部分原因是地緣政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。該報(bào)告是經(jīng)合組織對今年5月發(fā)表的經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測的更新。
這標(biāo)志著一家國際機(jī)構(gòu)首次警告蘇格蘭獨(dú)立公投對全球經(jīng)濟(jì)造成的整體后果。
這家總部位于巴黎、監(jiān)測發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的機(jī)構(gòu)下調(diào)了除印度以外的所有大型經(jīng)濟(jì)體在2014年的增長預(yù)期。
它預(yù)計(jì)美國增長2.1%，歐元區(qū)增長0.8%，日本增長0.9%，這代表著將每個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的增長預(yù)期下調(diào)了0.3到0.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
經(jīng)合組織對中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)期不變，仍為7.4%，同時(shí)預(yù)計(jì)英國增長3.1%，是發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體中增長最快的。巴西是增長最低的，預(yù)計(jì)今年僅增長0.3%，遠(yuǎn)低于今年5月預(yù)期的1.8%。
就2015年而言，經(jīng)合組織仍預(yù)計(jì)增長將會加速，盡管它同樣下調(diào)了預(yù)期。
經(jīng)合組織再次嚴(yán)厲批評了歐元區(qū)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人。它認(rèn)為歐元區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)“令人失望”，并警告稱，“信心再次變?nèi)?，通脹下降體現(xiàn)出需求疲弱。整個(gè)歐元區(qū)的通脹水平接近于零，在多個(gè)成員國甚至為負(fù)值”。
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Fears of disruption following a Scottish vote for independence and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine have damaged prospects for the world economy, the OECD said yesterday.
The outlook had darkened for 2014 and 2015 for almost all the world’s large economies, partly as the result of one-off hits to growth early this year and partly stemming from geopolitical risks, the OECD said in an updat to economic forecasts published in May
This marks the first time an international body has warned of the wider consequences to the global economy of a Scottish Yes vote.
The Paris-based organisation, which oversees the advanced economies, revised down its forecasts for 2014 growth for all large economies except India.
It expects growth of 2.1 per cent in the US, 0.8 per cent in the eurozone and 0.9 per cent for Japan, representing downward revisions in each economy of between 0.3 and 0.5 percentage points.
China’s forecast is constant at 7.4 per cent growth, with the UK the fastest growing advanced economy at 3.1 per cent. Brazil is bottom of the league, with only 0.3 per cent growth expected this year, much lower than the 1.8 per cent expected in May.
For 2015, the OECD still hopes that growth rates will pick up, although it has again trimmed most of its forecasts.
The organisation repeated sharp criticism of eurozone leaders. Calling the region’s economic performance “disappointing”, it warned “confidence is again weakening, and the anaemic state of demand is reflected in the decline in inflation, which is near zero in the zone as a whole and negative in several countries”.
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